Book Review: Ropes of Sand, and, See No Evil

My new tattoo says, "through wisdom, strength." Only through questioning, wondering, researching with open minds can society overcome those elements that seek to undermine our lives. We have to release our egos, biases, judgments, and notions, let them go. As we distance ourselves from these hobgoblins, we can then see them for what they really are, and also the forces that drive them. OK, enough exposition, but there is a reason.

Both books follow a man's life living abroad, working for the United States government. Wilbur Eveland ("Ropes of Sand;" 1980) worked for the Central Intelligence Agency, when the agency was called the Office of Strategic Services. Eveland continued his intelligence career into the CIA. His autobiographical book covers his experiences as a CIA Section Chief in the Middle East.

Robert "Bob" Baer ("See No Evil;" 2002) provided the inspiration for the movie, "Syriana." George Clooney played the part of Baer, though in the movie his name was Bob Barnes. Bob Baer was perhaps one of the best CIA Case Officers during his time with the agency. Most people misunderstand the CIA. Spying is not precisely the business of the CIA. A CIA Case Officer finds local, indigenous people whom they can encourage to provide sensitive information. A Case Officer is like District Manager for Frito-Lay who manages the sales reps who take or deliver orders, keep customers happy, and file reports for the corporate offices. Human Intelligence is what this action is called, and falls within the directive of the National Clandestine Service (NCS), formerly known as the Directorate of Operations (DO) of the CIA.

Both of these autobiographical works share a common theme - the failure of U.S. policy-makers to recognize the importance of Knowledge.

Eveland exposes many policies supported not by facts or knowledge, but supported simply by the sheer will of a select number of people. One such "policy" was the creation of a Jewish Homeland. Today, people commonly assume that all Jews were in favor of the creation of Israel. The reality was much different. Zionist Jews, those that advocated for a Jewish Homeland, comprised less than 10% of the Jewish diaspora. Christians were far more interested in creating a Jewish Homeland than the Jews were, in total. Eveland's work is annotated, referenced, and indexed, creating a scholarly work for a life of intelligence-gathering, a career spanning the end of World War II until Vietnam. {For further reading about this, consult "The Israel-Arab Reader," "Righteous Victims," and "Power, Faith, and Fantasy."}

Baer may have worked with Eveland, as both were Middle East operatives. Not only do their careers overlap, but Eveland was a CIA Section Chief in the Middle East, and Baer was a CIA Case Officer in the Middle East. Baer's job was to find local people who had government positions that were "unhappy" or "concerned" that his/her government was not behaving correctly. These disgruntled individuals, "human intelligence," (HUMINT) would be cultivated into providing information, considered sensitive, to Bob, which he would then pass along to a Section Chief or the Pentagon. New-gained knowledge would then be used to sculpt U.S. foreign policy, used to keep foreign governments honest, or perhaps be used to overthrow a government.

Baer's book is a quick, exciting albeit uncomfortable read. Uncomfortable in the sense that he quickly outlines how diplomacy and satellites replaced boots-on-the-ground, real human-gathered intelligence. He essentially makes the point that satellites and hand-shaking ambassadors, all the while ignoring HUMINT, and closing CIA offices around the world, led to ineffectual data-collection. The absence of human intelligence allowed organizations such as al-Qaeda to develop and mature. The cannibalization of the CIA by the Department of State (diplomats) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), neither of which allegedly has the background or experience in running intelligence operations in foreign countries, created a vacancy of knowledge in which al-Qaeda, et. al., flourished.

The world, in spite of sleek iPhones, XBoxes, and Kindles, is an ugly, dirty place. Satellites, fantastically cool technology, should augment HUMINT, not replace HUMINT. Bob argues that replacing field agents with desk-jockey analysts who never put boots-on-the-ground is like making the restaurant manager the Head Chef – that one can be a chef simply because one knows the restaurant business does not follow. We have seen how terrorists defeat technology from horseback or bicycles, setting up Pony Express-style courier systems and hand-delivering messages and materials.

Without elaborate networks of "friendly" people, the world will continue to be a playground for those who decide to play with an alternate set of rules. The management of HUMINT assets requires people who speak languages, Arabic, Russian, Chinese, Farsi, and French, can work "outside the box," and can read people, environments, and situations. However, the networks are of no use if the policy-makers, in their own arrogance, prefer their own counsel.

Listen to legislators, people running for office, or government employees who denigrate the CIA. That person is probably an intelligence failure waiting to happen. Anyone who criticizes the inclusion of foreign languages in Primary or Secondary Education is also a diplomatic and/or intelligence failure. In order to have intelligent thoughts about the world, we have to act in intelligent ways. The only way I know to accomplish this is through the promotion of Education. A little bit of education helps, and more education is always better.

Finally, both authors also suggest that diplomacy has been undermined by global energy interests. Perhaps "infiltrated" might be a better word. Oil and Natural Gas companies drive much of the world's politics. These companies have lobbyists who constantly follow lawmakers. These companies find ways of subverting U.S. or foreign law to work abroad. To which companies do I refer? Name any; no matter. They are all guilty.

"See No Evil" I recommend simply because the events are within most reader's generation, and may have some memory of. Many names may be recognizable. Many events described were memorable - the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut (1983) or the Lockerbie Bombing (1988.) The Lockerbie Bombing (PanAm 103) may have actually been planned in Iran, though Libya was blamed.

I personally would not be surprised if some within the Iranian government, or perhaps the Pakistani ISI, were involved in 9/11.

Shutting down knowledge-gathering efforts, out of fear, out of arrogance, or cultural egotism has proven to be a dangerous, deadly, tragically costly and grievously short-sighted mistake. Knowledge coupled with living experience is power and cannot be replaced with technology. At least, not yet. Augmented with technology, yes. But seeing people eye-to-eye, reading body language, skiing, hunting, fishing, and eating with them, that is how we learn what lies ahead.

Technorati Tags: Robert Baer,CIA,human intelligence,terrorism,foreign policy,technology,see no evil

The Economic Geography of Higher Education

The Diane Rehm Show aired a broadcast this morning about the cost of Higher Education (HE). I struggled to listen as the guests seemed woefully inadequate to address the complete picture of the costs of Higher Education. The editor of the Chronicle of Higher Education (Jeffrey Selingo), Claudia Dreifus, an author and instructor from Columbia University, and three other guests, aired their perspectives. One would think that these educated people would have a better grasp of the problems associated with obtaining a Higher Education. After listening to them, I can make no other conclusion other than their knowledge of HE costs is incomplete and short-sighted.

I have to agree with some of the comments. Higher education costs have increased pretty dramatically over the last decade or so. Also, I must agree that students are taking on considerable debt, too.

Placing all of the blame on colleges and universities is fallacious and disingenuous. Blaming costs uniquely upon colleges and universities creates a dangerous atmosphere of contempt for HE, displacing blame onto institutions that are the recipients of students who appear to have left their brains at home before traveling to college. One might as well blame farmers because Twinkies taste wierd.

Here is what I mean.

At the National Level, the USA lacks a true employment policy. The Bureau of the Census gathers statistics, as does the Department of the Commerce. We gather knowledge about education and income, occupations and trades. These federal agencies then publish reports about employment outlooks, what jobs are going to be necessary, how much they pay, responsibilities, a wealth of knowledge. Reports are published and made available via the media. These notices usually come in the form of this WKMS article, outlining the lack of technology workers. The Federal Government tells people what they should study. The Federal Government does not make people study what is needed, though. With the Employment Outlook Handbook, people have the ability to inform themselves. The Government essentially says, every year, "Hey, this is what we need people to do; if you want a job, and want to make money, check out these fields." And, a few Americans will listen, but most will just wander around willy-nilly doing whatever they want. Which is fine; that is the society we have built for ourselves. We cannot complain later that we studied the wrong field, though. And, no American can claim ignorance of any job field. The information is there; all one has to do is obtain and read.

Without a National Structure of Education, for lack of a better term, students are left to their own counsel to decide how to educate themselves. Our educational system does a poor job of placing students into "tracks." In Germany, at the onset of Secondary Education, students are given choices based on aptitudes. Students then proceed into an educational track throughout high school.Having designated tracks satisfies the job market and the student. The tracks are pretty regimented, meaning a student cannot leap from track to track, racking up debt, and then wander off to the unemployment office.

At the State Level, every state has at least one system of state universities. Yes, they may vary by quality. Programs many vary with quality. State universities are nearly obligated to accept all residents. Funding for state schools is based on Full-time Enrollment (FTE.) The higher the FTE the more funding a school receives. If FTE drops, then funding drops, and universities never want to lose funding. Admission standards are lowered, and yes, students that are functionally illiterate are admitted. The state government pretty much says a school receiving state funding cannot turn away a resident without a good reason. Education funding is dependent on state and national economies. During down times, tuition goes up to account for the lack of state funding. During good economies, tuition remains flat.

Tuition rarely goes down. Universities are constantly pushed by accreditation organizations to stay modern. Universities are pushed by public and private sector to stay current with technology, methods, and building people who can be trained and taught. Universities are pushed by students looking for modern buildings, equipment, faculty, accreditation, and research. Universities are then compelled to update, spend money, hire faculty, provide raises and benefits in order to stay competitive. Most universities try to engage public and private sector entities to help share costs, to keep minimize increases while showing former, current, and potential students that the university is current and evolving.

State colleges and universities provide the best value for the expense. Beginning at a community college, perhaps working a part-time job, living at home, is a good way to begin. Leverage good grades in high school for tuition waivers later. Work summers to pay for fall tuition. Then, if needed, engage a student loan to cover expenses not covered by working.

Students use their student loans for purchasing motorcycles, big-screen televisions, going on cruises, throwing huge parties, and generally throwing the money away. Little time is engaged in budgeting. Often I hear, "I don't care, I'll pay it all back when I get a job." And, then, they can't find a job.

Which brings me to high school. At the Local Level, the high school level, guidance counselors exist for helping students select occupations based on interest and aptitude. Hypothetically, anyway. In reality, I honestly have no idea what these people do. I run across so many people who never knew their high guidance counselor, or who used notes from their guidance counselor to get of school. The guidance students should be getting in high school appears to be non-existent, in the aggregate. Parents are little better at providing guidance.

The population of the USA seems to be suffering the mass hallucination that we can do whatever we want, without having to think anything through, fly by the seat of our pants, and never plan for future's eventual arrival.

A Potential College Student (PCS) thinks about what would be fun to have as a job. The PCS decides he likes art, and decides to pursue a degree in Art History. After spending 4 years in college, the time arrives to find a job. Wow, guess what? The job market for Art Historians with a Bachelor's Degree is a desert; nothing. He then begins a highly critical assessment of the college, his department, his faculty, for leading him down a path where everyone around him is to blame. Totally wrong. All he had to do was ask a faculty person, or Google, “what am I going to do with this degree?”

The student has a responsibility to himself/herself to engage in research to uncover the likelihood of finding employment 4 years down the road. Don't blame others for your own lack of research. While there is nothing wrong with the pursuit of an Art History degree, per se, knowing what to do with it is far more important. That takes foresight and planning. Foresight and planning should take place in Year 1, not Year 4. Taking out $50,000 worth of student loans without a plan again is not smart. Planning on how to pay back $50,000 post-Year 4 is not a good idea. In fact, if I ran my own university I would revoke your degree for having learned nothing in 4 years.

High schools, parents, and potential college students should use the documents provided by the Bureau of the Census and the Department of Commerce to help select occupations that the student finds interesting, and also have been identified as being "in need" or have a positive growth outlook. Then, an academic and financial plan is established to finance education. Local conditions should also apply, as well, as some occupations might be highly in demand in one geographic region, while low in demand somewhere else.

In conclusion, a few comments to distill these thoughts. Blaming colleges and universities for forces out of their control is foolish. Blaming colleges and universities for the peccadilloes of young, naive, immature teenagers is inherently flawed. The National Education Policy of the USA needs to be scrutinized. High schools need to provide better occupation counseling to all students and families. Potential college students need to take responsibility for their chosen degree path, their own success in that path, and their own financial expenses while engaged in pursuing their education.

Technorati Tags: education,budget,tuition,college,university,student loans

How Price Controls Hurt

In my traditionally taught course, I made the comment that subsidies/price controls hurt the poor. A reply to that comment inquired how subsidies hurt the poor. Weren't subsidies designed to help farmers?

My reply was, absolutely, subsidies or price controls especially help local farmers. Actually, the USDA may refer to these as "price controls." However, what I encourage people to attempt is to examine the downstream effects of such "price controls."

"Downstream Effects" is a way of saying that one should consider the long-term effects of choices we make that initially may make perfect sense, in the short-term. Also, one should consider the effects across a range of activities and not simply focus on one activity.

I used SUGAR to illustrate my example.

First some geography. 160 million metric tons of sugar is produced each year. Sugar comes from either sugar cane or sugar beets. The primary producers of sugar, in order of amount produced, are Brazil, India, the European Union, and China. In the United States, four states produce domestic sugar - Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and Hawaii. In 2010, the United States produced 7.6 million metric tons, and we consumed 10.0 million metric tons. Obviously, we had to buy some (import) to meet our demand.

In simple terms, price controls help domestic sugar farmers. Sugar can be produced much more cheaply in other parts of the world. Sugar farmers cannot compete in an open market, and have successfully lobbied to have sugar imported into the United States inflated in price to match the price of United States sugar.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Division, sugar prices in the United States are 2-3 times higher than the World Price for sugar. I have prepared a chart illustrating those prices, and they are readily available on the USDA/ERD Web site.

Price per Pound (cents)

Year	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
United States	-	62.9	57.0	53.5	51.8
World	35.6	33.3	15.7	17.9	12.9

No doubt, inflated sugar prices help U.S. sugar farmers stay in business. Plus, U.S. sugar farmers also employ over 100,000 people.

The costs of sugar are passed along to millions of U.S. consumers, though. Sugar, as I am sure you are aware, is found in plenty of food items, and the costs of those food items is based, in part, on the cost of inputs to make that food item. That Snickers, gummy bear, Valentine's Day chocolate, or bowl of Lucky Charms, costs you, as a consumer, a little more because of the sugar used in production of that product.

As costs for inputs increase, people may choose to save money, or buy less, or use their money for other products. Changes in consumer decisions can affect how many people are employed in an industry. Candy companies may opt to limit the number of employees due to a decrease in demand driven by increases in price. Factories may move abroad not because of labor costs, but because no price controls on sugar exist in Canada or Mexico.

We may make decisions based on what seems like common sense, e.g. "I don't want to hurt farmers, I better vote on this price control measure." That decision though can have the Downstream Effect of reducing employment, creating unemployment, and driving up the cost of groceries for all consumers. When an economic issue arises in the upcoming political season, consider examining the Downstream Effects of the proposed solutions.

The United States and Islamic Law

The Department of Government Law and International Affairs at Murray State University hosted Mr. Abed Awad on Thursday night, March 24th, 2011.

Mr. Awad is an internationally recognized American lawyer specializing in Islamic law, with degrees from Rutgers and Pace International School of Law, among others.

The invitation to Mr. Awad was extended in order to educate faculty, staff, students, and the community, in general, about Islamic law, and to address the attention of U.S. media has directed towards Sharia law.

Honestly, my own thoughts paralleled some of those I have both heard and read - that U.S. law should prevail in the United States. Not that I am against Sharia law, or any other law for that matter, but from strictly a reductionist viewpoint, my opinion was that too many legal systems make the application of law difficult, if not unfair. In other words, the simpler, the better.

These thoughts, though, were essentially ignorant of the U.S. legal system, and global legal systems, in general, and if I had bothered to challenge my own views I would have understood their ignorance. Yes, like the Grinch, I think I had a few brain cells grow three sizes tonight.

The United States legal system allows for agreements and contracts to be written and entered into based on a wide variety of legal and religious precedents. For example, not everyone in the United States marries according to Christian doctrine. Jews do not, and Jews have what is called “Rabbinical Law,” which governs many secular and religious practices. Not all Christians abide by the same Christian laws, either. Quakers, Amish, Mennonites, Russian Orthodox, and Greek Orthodox all have different rules regarding marriage, death, and charity.

People write contracts and engage in business and other activities not necessarily according to civil laws but by religious laws. We might not be exposed to dealings such as these, living in rural Kentucky, or rural America, but those living in Chicago, New York, Atlanta, or other urban areas might run across business contracts that cut across cultural and religious lines.

Businesses may engage in contracts around the world, and those contracts may stipulate compensations, penalties, or interest. In some areas of the world, Israel, Jordan, Malaysia, how those financial instruments are calculated may be governed by religious law rather than civil law.

As individuals, we may never run across personal or business dealings that engage us in contracts or agreements that require us to be knowledgeable about religious laws. Individual events, marriage, death, tithing and charity, divorce, adoption are areas in which religious laws may prevail over civil law because of the contract in place to bind the parties together.

Oklahoma passed a law that makes the practice of Sharia law illegal and voids any contract that involves international law. Tennessee has a bill pending that would make the practice of Sharia law a felony. Both of those legal proceedings are fraught with problems. First, Sharia law is religion-based. The U.S. constitution forbids the making of any laws that forbid or restrict the practice of any religion. Second, legal precedent already allows for other religious laws to be considered in legal proceedings, from Greek Orthodox to Rabbinical laws to Mormon law. Third, people and businesses may already have contracts in place containing elements that address the religious laws in place elsewhere. Legal experts must be in place to address potential breaches in contract stipulations. By making any religious law illegal the courts then have no ability to consider a contract breach and therefore no legal remedy is available. Fourth, states have no power to control the treaties engaged in by the Federal Government. International treaties have the power of domestic law. International treaties that incorporate religious laws then need to have lawyers skilled in international law.

In conclusion, my knowledge of our United States legal system was greatly expanded tonight. The inclusion of Sharia law in our legal system is not unique nor should be deemed as catering to a special interest, as Rabbinical (Jewish) laws, and laws from other Christian sects are commonly found within our legal system. Judges, jurors, and lawyers often use expert testimony, expert witnesses, rabbis, priests, and clergy for interpreting contracts and agreements. Focusing on a single religion and treating that religion’s doctrine differently than others is unconstitutional. By making the process of considering any religious law or doctrine illegal, the legal system itself will be unable to bring about any legal resolution.

To learn more about Abed Awad: http://www.abedawad.com/aboutAbedAwad.htm

How Well Do You Know the United States?

http://blogs.census.gov/censusblog/

One of the best ways to learn about the United States is too look at Census Statistics, or to look at U.S.A Trade data.

Why do we call the region south of the Ohio River the Bible Belt? How do we know people are moving to the Southwest? If you want to live around rich people,where should you relocate to? If you want to open or perhaps you run a chain of daycare centers, where might you want to focus your attention?

The U.S Census Bureau operates a fun blog. The chart at right is from this blog. Rather than focusing on the technical aspects of the U.S.Bureau and the work they do, these writings are derived from their statistical findings, such as an examination in the growth of Native American-owned businesses. Several of their most recent offerings chart residential changes in post-Katrina New Orleans.

And, they also diverge from the purely demographic to the esoteric, like charting the increase in Dental Floss imports from 2006.

Technorati Tags: census 2010,bible belt,katrina,demographics

Earthquake Japan: A Fated Event

The 8.9 magnitude earthquake centered off the northeast coast of Japan’s main island, Honshu, has been predicted to happen for at least a decade.

The map at right (courtesy United States Geological Survey) illustrates the epicenter of the most significant earthquake to affect Japan in a century.

The pink lines indicate the boundaries where crustal plates meet. The red lines are faults, fractures in the earth’s crust.

The islands of Japan are on the eastern edge of the giant Eurasian Plate, directly across from the Filipino Plate, and the Pacific Plate. And, located not too far away to the north is the North American Plate, and to the south is the Australian Plate.

These plates move around, albeit slowly. GPS sensors have been placed on these plates that measure movement. Geologists then know direction and velocity. The one element we do not know is stress; we do not know and have no good way of measuring the pressures that build up along fault lines, and more significantly, the subduction zones that occur at the boundary of these plates.

The Eurasian Plate pushes east, the Pacific Plate pushes west, and the Filipino Plate is caught in the middle.

Needless to say, the geologic pressures at work are pretty enormous, and dangerous when they are released.

Japan has an extensive and sophisticated civil alert network to warn people of dangers and hazards. Unfortunately, these activate after the event. Geologists and others still have no good way of predicting this form of natural hazard, not in the same way has we can predict hurricanes or cyclones.

The world gets nervous when Japan shakes because Tokyo is one of the world’s great Financial Capitals, along with New York, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Note that three of the world’s financial centers fall in seismically active regions (Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo).

Disruption in the financial markets, markets that control the movement of money, investments – essentially global trade – makes those in London, New York, and elsewhere nervous. Most financial centers have sophisticated methods for backing up and archiving financial information. Still, the disruption and the subsequent reallocation of resources takes time to implement.

Technorati Tags: earthquake,japan,usgs,finances,stock market

Can the U.S. Ego Handle Being #3?

Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, says that the United States needs to get ready to be Number 3 in the world, economically speaking.

Don't come after me, email him.

It is inevitable, though. Let's run some numbers.

Population of the United States: .... 310,000,000 people
Population of China: ..................1,400,000,000 people
Population of India: ...................1,100,000,000 people

A Rule of Thumb that I use is that 50% of a country's population is essentially the Labor Force.

Labor Force of The United States: ... 150,000,000 (Actual = 153 million; CIA World Factbook; 2010)
Labor Force of China: ......................700,000,000 (Actual = 819.5 million; CIA World Factbook; 2010)
Labor Force of India ........................650,000,000 (Actual = 478.3 million; CIA World Factbook; 2010)

Now, let's look at a measure of Economic Productivity, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

GDP of The United States: .... $14,700,000,000,000 (in PPP; CIA World Factbook; 2010 )
GDP of China: .......................  $9,872,000,000,000 (in PPP; CIA World Factbook; 2010)
GDP of India: ........................  $4,046,000,000,000 (in PPP; CIA World Factbook; 2010)

From: TradingEconomics.com

Judging from these numbers, The United State's economy is about equal to the combined economies of China and India.

However, economic growth for the last 5 years or so has not been promising. The U.S. has been hindered economically by two wars, stagnating domestic economic policy.

Economic growth in China and India is promising. For the last 10 years, China has experienced economic growth of at least 9% annual growth. In the years between 2003 - 2008, economic growth was in excess of 10%.

For India, the story is more measured, by the trend is mostly the same, expansive economic growth. Outside of a few quarters between 2004 - 2010, economic growth in India has been in excess of 7%.

In comparison, the best year between 2001 - 2010 for the United States occurred in 2004. After growing from about 0.5% in the first quarter of January 2002, the economy improved to an annual growth rate of 4% in the first quarter of 2004.

Not that I want to portray a bleak picture; the numbers essentially speak for themselves.

China and India both have much larger populations, individually, than does the United States. Both China and India have much economic growth left; in fact, many would argue that the true economic potential of both countries is 20 - 40 years away, given that China / U.S. relations remain congenial, and that Pakistan / India relations do not run the world to the brink of annihilation (again). Likewise that China / India relations remain congenial, and that India does not find China's attempt to become the de facto leader in Asia a threat.

We've had a good run at being the world leader.

As our educational systems falter, as American continue to be distracted from STEM education, as parents and educators argue about how to manage classrooms, as children lose discipline, as entitlement programs create in-fighting and bickering among political rivals and as Americans, born into entitlements, fight to keep them, and as the United States presses "democracy" within the Middle East and Central Asia, our economic competitors will continue to mature and evolve. China and India, seeking to make theirs lives better, will look at consumer markets domestically and abroad, and build new relationships. Chinese and India will (and do) focus on training, education, science, and math.

That the United States will lose its economic position and status is not really a knock against us, but merely an illustration of how far behind us, economically, both India and China are. Each has come along way in educating populations, and bringing citizens out of poverty.

Each has a long way to go, however, and as India and China cover that distance, the United States will have to evaluate, and continue to re-evaluate its global role.

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