Oil retards growth. The presence of oil retards growth. This flies in the face of conventional wisdom. This idea is not unique to me but I see validity within it. Let's see if I can explain.
Currently, as I write this, oil is priced about 76$/barrel, according to Bloomberg.com. A gallon of regular unleaded gas pumped in the town in which I am located runs about $2.76/gallon (Speedway).
Oil is supposed to be a wonderful benefactor for the countries in which oil is the primary industry (or is a primary industry). But lets look at some of those countries.
Iraq: Oil made it USA's friend, until Iraq's Saddam Hussein began causing trouble. He did not invest in the oil infrastructure nor did he seek to provide economic opportunities by diversifying his economy. Iraq is geographically positioned to be a source of industry, commerce, knowledge, and agricultural products. There is no reason why it could not be a self-sustaining economy.
Iran: Has to import fuel because profits from its own oil sales have not been used to build more refineries. In fact, many Iranians are curious to know where the money has really gone.
Saudi Arabia: Led by a monarchy, one family. While it has attempted to diversify the economy, 75% of its budget revenues come from oil, and 90% of its export revenue is oil-based (CIA.gov). Almost 50% of the Saudi Gross Domestic Product comes from oil. Not a particularly diversified economy. Now, they are instituting some reforms; but they have been pumping oil from SA for decades and only now they have decided that they might want to pass along the benefits to their own people. Women still fall well short of men in terms of literacy; 30% of women 15 years and older cannot read or write (CIA.gov).
Nigeria: Is a mess. The government is fighting a civil war over control of its oil fields. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta is fighting for control of the oil fields. In recent months, they have attacked foreign oil workers, oil equipment, taken hostages, and shot journalists covering the war. Nigerian oil exports are well off past production numbers. Oil accounts for 20% of Nigeria's DGP and 95% of its foreign exchange. Again, oil is nothing new to Nigeria, and government corruption and mismanagement has prevented growth in Africa's most populous country, where 40% of women above 15 years of age cannot read or write (CIA.gov).
Venezuela: Another country run by a dictator; well, okay, Hugo Chavez was democratically elected, but since then he was able to get his government to agree to let him rule by decree which is essentially electing him king. Now, he is trying to change Venezuela's constitution so that he might reign in perpetuity. Otherwise, he would have to give up his post in 2009. Venezuela is the third largest exporter of oil to the United States, behind Canada and Saudi Arabia. President Chavez has apparently funneled oil profits into social programs, helping to build houses, provide medical care, creating neighborhood food programs, job training, and literacy programs. Venezuela has suffered from years of oil-profit mismanagement, however, military coups, and corruption. Almost 90% of export earnings are from oil sales, and oil accounts for 30% of its GDP.
These countries stand on one leg - oil. They have relied on oil to support themselves, and in doing so they have stagnated. Oil, and reliance on oil, has retarded their growth by retarding their collective imaginations.
Take their oil away and where would these countries be? Would these countries have the innovation, the dreams, the desires, the imagination to develop and evolve in absence of oil? Would their governments try to encourage and promote economic opportunities, encourage and promote education, encourage and promote global investment?
Our current administration seems bound to continue limiting these countries by continuing to emphasize our reliance on these oil-producing nations and by not promoting economic diversification, but by providing them the means to make war on one another. Selling weapons ensures the continued economic divide that exists between the rich and poor, and reinforces the cultural divide between the Shia and Sunni. Weapons ensure that the powers that be within these governments remain in power, maintains the status quo, and contributes to the continued cultural and economic stagnation of these nations.
Monday, July 30, 2007
Thomas Friedman's Flat World
"The World Is Flat" should be required reading for every incoming college Freshman in the United States. We, the United States, is in BIG trouble. One, we are ignorant of the global forces at work around us. We are arrogant and see ourselves as The Bastion of Hope and Democracy. We are not. An arguement can be made that we are Exporters of Fear and Aggression. Our government focuses on the War on Terrorism, closing our borders, fencing us in, denying access to those that would come here to work, to help, to learn. We are the largest weapons merchant on the globe. Our government currently proposes to sell $30 billion worth of weapons to Egypt and Saudi Arabia to counter Iran.
We do not have to be in BIG trouble. We are also a country with a wealth of knowledge and ample opportunites for people to learn, live, grow, and to set forth the example of Hope and Democracy upon which our way of life was founded.
Unfortunately, our current administration suffers from paranoid delusions and uncontrollable fear.
We do not have to be in BIG trouble. We are also a country with a wealth of knowledge and ample opportunites for people to learn, live, grow, and to set forth the example of Hope and Democracy upon which our way of life was founded.
Unfortunately, our current administration suffers from paranoid delusions and uncontrollable fear.
The World Is Flattening
In 1960, Walter Rostow postulated that all countries pass through five stages of economic development. All countries initially begin as traditional agricultural societies, then build up and out. As their agricultural base evolves and diversifies, population grows, they will eventually reach preconditions for takeoff. Takeoff arrives when the country has a diversified economy, with industrial, commercial, agricultural activities, and a service sector that provides support and administrative capabilities. As these activities continue to grow and expand, coupled with an expansion of foreign investment opportunities, and the country becomes more entrenched within the global economy, the country drives to maturity. The final stage becomes that of high mass consumption. Now, the country and its people have reached a stage where incomes are high (generally speaking), industry, commerce, and technology have attained world-class recognition, and the government both oversees activities at home and promotes its national interests abroad.
Technology is helping countries leap-frog some of these stages. Global fiber optic cables are providing Internet access to locales once too remote or underdeveloped for telephone. Cell phones and associated towers encourage communication again in areas perhaps too remote or lacking land-line infrastructure. These technologies are being used by people to both push information into places and pull information and opportunities into places.
And that is what it is about: opportunity. Providing people opportunities to make their lives better, to improve upon what they already have. These technologies are equalizers, aka levelers, aka flatteners.
It is this freedom that is perhaps the greatest tool in the so-called "War on Terrorism." Terrorism thrives where hope and opportunities are restricted.
Provide opportunities, not $30 billions dollars in weapons sales, and see how terrorism spreads.
Technology is helping countries leap-frog some of these stages. Global fiber optic cables are providing Internet access to locales once too remote or underdeveloped for telephone. Cell phones and associated towers encourage communication again in areas perhaps too remote or lacking land-line infrastructure. These technologies are being used by people to both push information into places and pull information and opportunities into places.
And that is what it is about: opportunity. Providing people opportunities to make their lives better, to improve upon what they already have. These technologies are equalizers, aka levelers, aka flatteners.
It is this freedom that is perhaps the greatest tool in the so-called "War on Terrorism." Terrorism thrives where hope and opportunities are restricted.
Provide opportunities, not $30 billions dollars in weapons sales, and see how terrorism spreads.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Fareed Zakaria & David Ignatius
Fareed Zakaria provides analysis and insight unlike all others. His articles and essays are favorites of mine. The price of Newsweek for his commentary alone is worth it.
I am less familiar with David Ignatius, but as Dr. Zakaria (he has a Ph.D in Political Science from Harvard) has partnered himself with David to host the PostGlobal blog website, I am sure that David's musing are just as insightful.
Make sure and check out Dr. Zakaria's articles and his article archive. "Does the Future Belong to China?" essay is one of my favorites, and I use it in my World Geography every semester.
I am less familiar with David Ignatius, but as Dr. Zakaria (he has a Ph.D in Political Science from Harvard) has partnered himself with David to host the PostGlobal blog website, I am sure that David's musing are just as insightful.
Make sure and check out Dr. Zakaria's articles and his article archive. "Does the Future Belong to China?" essay is one of my favorites, and I use it in my World Geography every semester.
Muslims Speak Out
But why did this have to take five years?
The Washington Post website, On Faith, is a fantastic website dealing with the issues of faith. Coverage includes most Christian faiths, though also includes some Judaism. Currently, On Faith is hosting several Muslim scholars who are entertaining questions regarding Islam and Arab faith. Controversial and challenging, the forum is much appreciated.
The Washington Post website, On Faith, is a fantastic website dealing with the issues of faith. Coverage includes most Christian faiths, though also includes some Judaism. Currently, On Faith is hosting several Muslim scholars who are entertaining questions regarding Islam and Arab faith. Controversial and challenging, the forum is much appreciated.
Friday, July 13, 2007
FT.com / Home UK / UK - US takes China to task over Iraq and Afghan arms
FT.com / Home UK / UK - US takes China to task over Iraq and Afghan arms
Arms: their use, distribution, and manufacturer have a definite geographic character. Many countries are net weapons exporters. France, Great Britain, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Germany, and, of course, the United States. The United States is the world's leader in weapon's production and export, according to FAS.org, Foreign Policy in Focus, and the World Policy Institute.
Sometimes, I wonder how long it will be before we are attacked with our own ordinance. A widely-reported fear is that our own military or commerical aircraft will be shot down with a Stinger missile.
Recently, the US has scrapped many of its own F-14 Tomcats so replacement parts will not fall into the hands of the Iranian Air Force. We sold a few of those to the former Shah of Iran, before The Great Revolution.
Iran has recently been accused of helping manufacturer IEDs used recently in Iraq. Now, China has been targeted by our administration, as Chinese-made armor-piercing munitions are finding their ways nto Afghanistan and Iraq.
Please note the Pentagon official's name. The irony should not be lost.
Arms: their use, distribution, and manufacturer have a definite geographic character. Many countries are net weapons exporters. France, Great Britain, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Germany, and, of course, the United States. The United States is the world's leader in weapon's production and export, according to FAS.org, Foreign Policy in Focus, and the World Policy Institute.
Sometimes, I wonder how long it will be before we are attacked with our own ordinance. A widely-reported fear is that our own military or commerical aircraft will be shot down with a Stinger missile.
Recently, the US has scrapped many of its own F-14 Tomcats so replacement parts will not fall into the hands of the Iranian Air Force. We sold a few of those to the former Shah of Iran, before The Great Revolution.
Iran has recently been accused of helping manufacturer IEDs used recently in Iraq. Now, China has been targeted by our administration, as Chinese-made armor-piercing munitions are finding their ways nto Afghanistan and Iraq.
Please note the Pentagon official's name. The irony should not be lost.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Foreign Policy: The List: Six Reasons You May Need a New Atlas Soon
Foreign Policy: The List: Six Reasons You May Need a New Atlas Soon
Without a doubt, this is a great bit of geography!
Devolution and Failed States, these are the topics. What can make a new state successful, and what can kill a state in its infancy.
Kosovo - yes, I foresee Kosovo as standing on its own, one day. For how long is another matter ...
South Sudan - geez, this is a hard one. The southern part of Sudan is the oil-producing region, and, like the article states, the government in Khartoum is not likely to see this division as a positive. A Velvet Divorce this will not be. I would imagine that as soon as South Sudan decrees independence, North Sudan will invade. Korea, anyone?
Somaliland - This needs to happen sooner than later, so that some people can begin living better lives, and so that the region can experience some semblance of normalcy.
Kurdistan - See South Sudan above, except it won't be the Sunni attacking, well, at least not the Iraqi Sunni. The Turkish Sunnis have other ideas. Turkey may have no choice but to accept a Kurdish homeland if it wants to become more enmeshed in the European Union.
Palestine - Inevitable. Israel needs to grow beyond the opposition. Secondly, The Palestinians themselves need to hold each other accountable for their actions and learn to govern themselves in rational ways.
Taiwan - Not likely. China wants to bring Taiwan into the fold and they have time and patience on their side. Eventually, as China institutes democratic reforms and as its economic prowess expands, the Taiwanese leadership will eventually soften. The United States and Japan would be the only Taiwan supporters. The United States doesn't recognize Taiwan currently, anyway, so why would that change? Finally, no one would want to upset the global applecart buy slugging it out over Taiwan. That would be a no-win, everyone loses, confrontation.
Without a doubt, this is a great bit of geography!
Devolution and Failed States, these are the topics. What can make a new state successful, and what can kill a state in its infancy.
Kosovo - yes, I foresee Kosovo as standing on its own, one day. For how long is another matter ...
South Sudan - geez, this is a hard one. The southern part of Sudan is the oil-producing region, and, like the article states, the government in Khartoum is not likely to see this division as a positive. A Velvet Divorce this will not be. I would imagine that as soon as South Sudan decrees independence, North Sudan will invade. Korea, anyone?
Somaliland - This needs to happen sooner than later, so that some people can begin living better lives, and so that the region can experience some semblance of normalcy.
Kurdistan - See South Sudan above, except it won't be the Sunni attacking, well, at least not the Iraqi Sunni. The Turkish Sunnis have other ideas. Turkey may have no choice but to accept a Kurdish homeland if it wants to become more enmeshed in the European Union.
Palestine - Inevitable. Israel needs to grow beyond the opposition. Secondly, The Palestinians themselves need to hold each other accountable for their actions and learn to govern themselves in rational ways.
Taiwan - Not likely. China wants to bring Taiwan into the fold and they have time and patience on their side. Eventually, as China institutes democratic reforms and as its economic prowess expands, the Taiwanese leadership will eventually soften. The United States and Japan would be the only Taiwan supporters. The United States doesn't recognize Taiwan currently, anyway, so why would that change? Finally, no one would want to upset the global applecart buy slugging it out over Taiwan. That would be a no-win, everyone loses, confrontation.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Leica & TITAN
I downloaded, installed, and played with TITAN the other day. Honestly, I cannot see the utility of this, but it sounds like a cool tool.
TITAN is like Google Earth with an Instant Messenger and P2P built-in, and you have the ability to share your local imagery with others in your contact list. So, I guess, imagine that your are chatting online with a partner, client, collaborator, whoever, and you want the other person to see your data. Essentially, you would drag-and-drop your imagery (more-or-less) onto your chat client, and, wah-lah, your chat buddy can see your imagery, correctly referenced, on a viewer on his/her/its desktop.
You can build your own world, MyWorld, which you can share with your chat buddies. Want to see what others are doing? Search other MyWorlds to see what others are up to.
I hope I have this correct. I have interviewed a person at Leica and if you follow the link above, you can find out more.
TITAN is like Google Earth with an Instant Messenger and P2P built-in, and you have the ability to share your local imagery with others in your contact list. So, I guess, imagine that your are chatting online with a partner, client, collaborator, whoever, and you want the other person to see your data. Essentially, you would drag-and-drop your imagery (more-or-less) onto your chat client, and, wah-lah, your chat buddy can see your imagery, correctly referenced, on a viewer on his/her/its desktop.
You can build your own world, MyWorld, which you can share with your chat buddies. Want to see what others are doing? Search other MyWorlds to see what others are up to.
I hope I have this correct. I have interviewed a person at Leica and if you follow the link above, you can find out more.
ESRI:More Waves in the Ocean
The ESRI UC2007 conference is over. I did not attend this year. The conferences are tiring. And too big. Too big to be really helpful. Previous experience at the conference has shown me that spending time at the Doctor's Office is the biggest aid of all. The rest is just too overwhelming. I will attend in 2008.
Not only is the conference become too bloated but also, in my opinion, is their software. ESRI was once the largest wave in the ocean of spatial products. That environment is changing, due to the likes of Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and a few others. I ran across a statistic a while back that only a small percentage of users really want to do anything other than put a marker on a map. That is easily done today without paying for anything.
I work everyday in an environment where our students have all ESRI products accessible to them. I teach as much of those products as I know. My frustration easily mounts when I want them to constuct a 3D choropleth map but first I have to walk them through 3D Analyst first. This is a huge drawback in my mind. Needing an additional software extension, at a cost, to produce a cartographic product that should be part of the base software is mind-boggling.
I am stunned at how challenging the software is for the novice user. And the software is not getting easier. Stunned at how difficult producing visually pleasing map products has become. ESRI maintains a Mapping Center that everyone who maps with ESRI products needs to visit. There are some good tips at getting what you want out of ArcMap.
The difficulty of using their products, I predict, will lower their market share. Oracle will eventually challenge ESRI head-to-head. They have the spatial database and tools in development that will allow them to use their established user base for grabbing a portion of ESRI's market.
Leica Geo-systems, with its recent acquisition of ERMAPPER and IONIC, will probably see its relationship with ESRI sour. Imagine is a good raster-based GIS system, and with its newly-acquired image-processing competitors, their capability will only become better. ESRI is trying to make strides into a realm where it has little experience, being a vector-based GIS system. The early bird has collected the worms...
I personally have used ERMAPPER and found it to be easy-to-use and faster in many cases than its new parent, Imagine. ESRI is going to find that keeping its lead into the future more challenging, as the gazelle feels the nips at its heels from the hungry lions.
Not only is the conference become too bloated but also, in my opinion, is their software. ESRI was once the largest wave in the ocean of spatial products. That environment is changing, due to the likes of Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and a few others. I ran across a statistic a while back that only a small percentage of users really want to do anything other than put a marker on a map. That is easily done today without paying for anything.
I work everyday in an environment where our students have all ESRI products accessible to them. I teach as much of those products as I know. My frustration easily mounts when I want them to constuct a 3D choropleth map but first I have to walk them through 3D Analyst first. This is a huge drawback in my mind. Needing an additional software extension, at a cost, to produce a cartographic product that should be part of the base software is mind-boggling.
I am stunned at how challenging the software is for the novice user. And the software is not getting easier. Stunned at how difficult producing visually pleasing map products has become. ESRI maintains a Mapping Center that everyone who maps with ESRI products needs to visit. There are some good tips at getting what you want out of ArcMap.
The difficulty of using their products, I predict, will lower their market share. Oracle will eventually challenge ESRI head-to-head. They have the spatial database and tools in development that will allow them to use their established user base for grabbing a portion of ESRI's market.
Leica Geo-systems, with its recent acquisition of ERMAPPER and IONIC, will probably see its relationship with ESRI sour. Imagine is a good raster-based GIS system, and with its newly-acquired image-processing competitors, their capability will only become better. ESRI is trying to make strides into a realm where it has little experience, being a vector-based GIS system. The early bird has collected the worms...
I personally have used ERMAPPER and found it to be easy-to-use and faster in many cases than its new parent, Imagine. ESRI is going to find that keeping its lead into the future more challenging, as the gazelle feels the nips at its heels from the hungry lions.
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